Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology.

Mar 13, 2023

A Dearth of Secrets, an Excess of Capital: SVB’s Explosion

We may be entering a more ruthless era in tech

Jun 2, 2022

The Inventor of the iPhone Has Some Thoughts

Build by Tony Fadell: A Review

Oct 1, 2024

Dad Mode

The secret to personal growth isn't in self-help books or ayahuasca trips. It's in a $1.99 pregnancy test from Target.

Oct 14, 2022

Who Wins the AI Value Chain?

It's A Brave New World

Sep 29, 2022

Why Culture Eats Strategy

The Search For the Winning Formula

Jan 5, 2023

It Is Always Time to Build

Interest rates do not equal innovation rates

Dec 1, 2020

Should you invest in Wish? An S-1 Analysis

A look inside the S-1 of Wish. Included is the background of Wish, a look at their margins, how the universal postal union is changing their cost structure, how their CAC is rising and if they are viable long-term.

Dec 21, 2022

Meditations on AI Mecca

A dispatch from a hacker conference in San Francisco

Feb 16, 2023

Bada Bing: Why Microsoft Wants Google to Dance

Surely nothing bad will happen with an AI hooked up to the internet

Mar 23, 2023

How AI Changes the Media Business

Why community and social network effects will be key to winning the future

Apr 15, 2021

COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An Intuitive Explainer for How To Lose Money and Win Anyway

Aug 17, 2023

The Internet Is Still Early

Neither hellscape nor utopia—the internet makes society anew

Dec 16, 2021

The primary trends I’m investing in next year

Inflation, web3, embedded fintech, investing in people, and the newsletter winter that is coming

Jun 6, 2023

The Bugman Cometh

My sick, unexplainable desire to buy a face computer

Oct 30, 2020

What You Need To Know About The Ant Financial IPO

The largest IPO in history is happening in China with Ant Financial. In this post, we discuss all the services Ant Financial provides and what to expect in the future from Ant.

Nov 10, 2022

Pinterest Has a Chance

The first full-stack shopping platform

Aug 20, 2020

How AB 5 Will Break Uber’s Business

The difference between a contractor and an employee, what Uber's existing business looks like and how AB5 will impact their financials.

Oct 5, 2023

Automate the Simple Stuff With Stupid Tools

This is the dumbest AI will ever be—and it’s still magic

Mar 30, 2022

Twitter’s Probably Screwed

The Rugged Landscape of Digital Advertising

Dec 21, 2023

Should You Fire This Newsletter? 2023 Edition

2024 is the year I go big

Aug 4, 2022

The Meh-taverse

A Book Review

May 5, 2022

The Empire Stripes Back

A $100B Bet on Two Brothers

Jan 25, 2024

The Zone of Deployment

How can you know when to invest?

Mar 2, 2023

Should I Quit and Start a Franchise?

I’m wondering if I can deep-fry my way out of the apocalypse